11/9/16, “Trump beats the media and the establishment in pulling off the greatest upset ever,“ Howard Kurtz, Fox News
“Donald Trump, the real estate mogul mocked and minimized by the media and political establishment, has stunned the world with a death-defying campaign that has captured the presidency….
The man who had never run for public office, who had supposedly alienated so many women and minorities that he had no serious chance, somehow captured the highest office in the land.
It was not until 2:30 am that first the AP, then the Washington Post and Wall Street Journal, then Fox News, declared Trump to be the 45th president.
There was a sense of disbelief, even shock, among journalists on and off the air as states like Ohio, North Carolina and Florida fell into the Trump column and Clinton failed to put away the big blue Midwestern states. Once Trump was within 54 electoral votes of winning the White House, the entire conversation changed:
How did Trump do this? How could Clinton have blown this?
How could we have missed this? How would this guy govern?
Some media figures lashed out on Twitter. ABC’s Martha Raddatz choked back tears as she discussed the Trump presidency.“…
Poll dates, Nov. 1-4, 2016 (Tu-F), 800 Iowa likely voters, land line and telephone, 3.5 error margin
11/5/16, “Iowa Poll: Trump opens 7-point lead over Clinton,“ Des Moines Register, Jason Noble
“The Iowa Poll, conducted Nov. 1-4 for The Des Moines Register and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 800 Iowans ages 18 or older who say they will definitely vote or have already voted in the 2016 general election.
Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted 1,072 Iowa adults with randomly selected landline and cell phone numbers supplied by Survey Sampling International. Responses from the full probability sample were adjusted by age and sex to reflect the general population based on recent census data. Interviews were administered in English.
Questions based on the subsample of 800 Iowa likely voters have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points….Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin of error.”
“Presidential Election VoteThis chart tracks our best estimate, over time, of how America plans to vote in November
The final blue and red figures on the right side of the chart represent our most recent estimates of Hillary Clinton’s vote (blue squares) and Donald Trump’s (red diamonds). These estimates represent weighted averages of all responses in the prior week. The gray band is a “95-percent confidence interval”. Figures lying outside the gray band mean that we are at least 95% confident that the candidate with the highest percentage will win the popular vote.
About the Survey✝
The USC Dornsife/LA Times Presidential Election “Daybreak” Poll is part of the ongoing Understanding America Study: (UAS) at the University of Southern California’s (USC) Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research, in partnership with the Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics and the Los Angeles Times. Every day, we invite one-seventh of the members of the UAS election panel to answer three predictive questions: What is the percent chance that… (1) you will vote in the presidential election? (2) you will vote for Clinton, Trump, or someone else? and (3) Clinton, Trump or someone else will win? As their answers come in, we update the charts daily (just after midnight) with an average of all of the prior week’s responses. To find out more about what lies behind the vote, each week we also ask respondents one or two extra questions about their preferences and values. The team responsible for the USC Dornsife/LA Times Presidential Election Poll four years ago developed the successful RAND Continuous Presidential Election Poll, which was based on the same methodology.”
Above, 11/2/16, Fireworks for Trump ralliers in Pensacola, Florida, at Martime Park’s Hunter Amphitheater, capping a day of 3 Florida Trump rallies, (Miami, Orlando, and Pensacola). “Thank you Pensacola, Florida!
@realDonaldTrump @mike_pence will #DrainTheSwamp with you- and MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! #VoteTrumpPence16, Dan Scavino Jr. Verified account @DanScavino
Above, 11/2/16, Trump rally in Miami, Florida, “Thank you Miami! In 6 days, we are going to WIN the GREAT STATE of FLORIDA – and we are going to win back the White House!
#VOTE! Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump 7 hours ago Miami, FL,” Donald J Trump twitter